Red Sox SP Nick Pivetta is due for positive regression. He sports a 3.77 xERA, 3.65 xFIP and 3.47 SIERA. He has a 10.51 K/9 ratio, 28.4% K% and a 6.4% BB% this season. He has allowed three total runs in his last two starts (12.0 IP). Pivetta is 8-3 with a 3.33 ERA in 13 career appearances against the O's. He has allowed three total runs with 16 strikeouts in his last two starts against them (12.0 IP).

Orioles SP Dean Kremer has a 4.71 xERA, 4.46 xFIP and 4.44 SIERA. He is 2-4 with a 6.45 ERA in eight career appearances against Boston, having surrendered nine runs and four homers in 14.0 combined IP vs. the Sox last season. Boston has a .327 BA/.407 OBP/.673 SLG/1.080 OPS slash line with five homers against him in 52 combined previous ABs.

I trust Pivetta more than Kremer and like the value of a bet on the Boston ML.