The Fighting Illini will cover on Thursday, attacking the Spartans at the rim, where they shoot 66.9 percent. MSU's interior defense is stout, but the Illini bigs will pressure Mady Sissoko and Carson Cooper to stay out of foul trouble. With Jaxon Kohler making only his second appearance of the season, Michigan State is still relatively thin and vulnerable inside.

The Spartans will keep this game close through most of Thursday evening, with A.J. Hoggard creating for his teammates and Tyson Walker creating scoring opportunities on his own. MSU has fought back after a poor start to the season but had its momentum derailed by Northwestern. If this game were played in a few weeks, the Spartans would be a great bet, but not tomorrow.

Even without Terrence Shannon Jr. (21.7 PPG), the Fighting Illini are a great team (+25.24 schedule-adjusted efficiency margin). They will prove that against the Spartans, earning a meaningful victory for their strength of schedule.