I'm confident the Dolphins will rely on their ground game, as they should have last week vs. Buffalo, to cover the 4.5-point spread. Aside from the fact that Saturday's weather conditions lend to a run-focused attack, Miami's ground game is a difference-maker. Its backfield leads the league in yards per carry (5.48) and Kansas City is 27th in Run DVOA, per FTN. The Dolphins racked up 858 yards on explosive runs (15+ yards) this season and no team gained ten or more yards on a higher percentage of their rushes.

The Chiefs' pass rush is intimidating, but a great ground game can offset that, leading to shorter third downs. I expect Mike McDaniel to lean on his ground game, neutralizing KC's pass rush and bleeding the game clock. It's no surprise the total has fallen a few points, as sharps saw significant value on the under at 47 given the conditions and Miami's explosive run game. While I'm skeptical the under is still attractive at 44, I'm sold on the Fins at +4.5.

Let's bet together on Saturday!