Tyrese Haliburton's injury could be costly for Indiana. It managed to get past Washington in its first game without him, but that isn't saying much. The Pacers went 8-21 straight up (10-18-1 ATS) without Haliburton the last two seasons, which isn't surprising considering that he's the catalyst to their top-ranked offense. His absence is likely worth five or six points to the spread, as he's worth +8.2 points per 100 possessions to Indy's offense, schedule-adjusted, per Dunks and Threes.

The question for bettors in this game is, are the Hawks enough of a threat to make his absence matter? Atlanta needed overtime just to beat Philadelphia without Joel Embiid earlier this week, as its defense still gave up 132 points. In the first two meetings between Indy and ATL, the Pacers scored 307 total points and knocked down 41 three-pointers. Haliburton scored only ten points in the most recent matchup but dished out 18 dimes. 

His absence will be felt in Sunday's game at Denver, but I feel confident Indiana will at least cover tomorrow. Atlanta ranks 25th in rim defense, 27th in mid-range defense, and 27th in three-point defense, and its opponents sport the highest effective field goal percentage in the league (57.7 eFG%). Indy still managed 31 assists without its floor general versus Washington and TJ McConnell should be a suitable replacement.