Tylor Megill is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in four September starts, with 22 strikeouts in 20.0 innings (27.5% K%). He has allowed one or zero earned runs in four of his last five starts, as opponents are hitting .183 against him during that stretch.

Rookie Spencer Schwellenbach is facing the Mets in consecutive starts, which isn't an easy thing to do. He held NY in check during that outing, but I predict the visitors will break out offensively against him Monday afternoon. New York ranks 10th in wOBA (.312) and 10th in wRC+ (103) in the last 30 days and has hit right-handers well all season (10th in wOBA and 10th in wRC+) with a 32.3% hard-hit percentage (8th).

I don't trust the Braves after their loss at home on Sunday in a game that could have already earned them a postseason berth. The Mets handled their business on Sunday (5-0 win vs. Milwaukee) and won't squander a chance to punch their ticket in game one, avoiding having to play hard in both games of the twin bill.

Take the value bet on the Mets ML — you won't regret it!