I smell an upset in Madison this weekend. Purdue ranks first in finishing drives and 21st in explosiveness this season, and while Wisconsin is a large moneyline favorite, it hasn't deserved it yet.

The Badgers' defense has been suspect, ranking 88th in success rate allowed, 89th in explosiveness allowed, 102nd in finishing drives and 123rd in Havoc. The run defense is 107th in rushing success rate allowed, 96th in PFF run defense grade and 104th in rushing PPA allowed, while the pass defense is 118th in passing explosiveness allowed and 87th in passing PPA allowed. While Bucky Badger's run game has been reliable, the passing game ranks 81st in passing success rate, 94th in passing PPA and 120th in passing explosiveness.

Purdue has the upset bug and will down Wisconsin on Saturday.