PREMIUM
MNF: UNDER 43.5
(NFL) Saints (NO) vs. Chiefs (KC),
Total: 43.50 | -115.00 Under
Result: Win
Total: 43.50 | -115.00 Under
Result: Win
Betting Trends: Primetime unders are 169-115 (60%) with a 14% ROI since 2019. The under is 54-29-1 (65%) when the Chiefs are favored at Arrowhead and is 56-35-1 (62%) in KC home games since Andy Reid became the head coach.
The logical bet is on the under in a matchup between two strong defenses. While the public respects QB Patrick Mahomes enough to hammer the over (72% of bets), the total has fallen from 45 to 43.5, indicating sharp movement. That is the side I'm taking tonight, as well.
Kansas City needs playmakers, especially after losing WR Rashee Rice to injury. Rice averaged nearly 10 yards per target due to his ability to make moves downfield after the catch. With Tyreek Hill long gone and TE Travis Kelce looking less like the threat he was in the past, Rice had become the top option in this Chiefs offense. He accounted for roughly a quarter of Mahomes' targets this season, which isn't surprising as the QB's completion percentage was nearly 83% to him and just 64% to his other pass-catchers. The Chiefs are also without stud RB Isiah Pacheco, putting the ball in recent free-agent Kareem Hunt's hands instead.
The Saints didn't allow an offensive TD last week to Atlanta, who scored 36 points on Thursday, and will be tough to throw against. NOLA ranks 2nd in overall DVOA, with the third-ranked pass-defense DVOA and lowest passer rating allowed (68.0).
New Orleans has problems on offense, too. It is currently without two interior o-linemen, including star center Eric McCoy, and another lineman has been unable to practice this week. On top of that, the Saints have come crashing back down to reality after catching opposing defenses by surprise in the first two weeks. After scoring 40+ in the first two games, they're averaging just 18.0 points, as QB Derek Carr went from averaging 11.4 yards per attempt with a 5:1 TD:INT ratio to a 6.1 YPA with a 1:2 TD:INT ratio.
KC has a stout defense that can create havoc by pressuring the QB. Carr has struggled with pressure in his face, as his completion percentage falls from 81.9% to 46.4%, per PFF. The Chiefs are tough to run against (2nd in DVOA vs. the run), allowing just 3.8 YPC, too.
The logical bet is on the under in a matchup between two strong defenses. While the public respects QB Patrick Mahomes enough to hammer the over (72% of bets), the total has fallen from 45 to 43.5, indicating sharp movement. That is the side I'm taking tonight, as well.
Kansas City needs playmakers, especially after losing WR Rashee Rice to injury. Rice averaged nearly 10 yards per target due to his ability to make moves downfield after the catch. With Tyreek Hill long gone and TE Travis Kelce looking less like the threat he was in the past, Rice had become the top option in this Chiefs offense. He accounted for roughly a quarter of Mahomes' targets this season, which isn't surprising as the QB's completion percentage was nearly 83% to him and just 64% to his other pass-catchers. The Chiefs are also without stud RB Isiah Pacheco, putting the ball in recent free-agent Kareem Hunt's hands instead.
The Saints didn't allow an offensive TD last week to Atlanta, who scored 36 points on Thursday, and will be tough to throw against. NOLA ranks 2nd in overall DVOA, with the third-ranked pass-defense DVOA and lowest passer rating allowed (68.0).
New Orleans has problems on offense, too. It is currently without two interior o-linemen, including star center Eric McCoy, and another lineman has been unable to practice this week. On top of that, the Saints have come crashing back down to reality after catching opposing defenses by surprise in the first two weeks. After scoring 40+ in the first two games, they're averaging just 18.0 points, as QB Derek Carr went from averaging 11.4 yards per attempt with a 5:1 TD:INT ratio to a 6.1 YPA with a 1:2 TD:INT ratio.
KC has a stout defense that can create havoc by pressuring the QB. Carr has struggled with pressure in his face, as his completion percentage falls from 81.9% to 46.4%, per PFF. The Chiefs are tough to run against (2nd in DVOA vs. the run), allowing just 3.8 YPC, too.
