PREMIUM
KC-NY UNDER 7.5: MLB BEST BET
(MLB) Royals (KAN) vs. Yankees (NYY),
Total: 7.50 | -110.00 Under
Result: Win
Total: 7.50 | -110.00 Under
Result: Win
Betting Trends: The under was 48-27-1 (64.0%) following a Royals loss and 48-32-4 (60.0%) in KC road games during the regular season.
I can't see a value play on either side in tonight's Royals-Yankees game and prefer a wager on the total. The under, 6-4 in the last ten meetings between these ballclubs, is my bet with the total at 7.5 runs scored.
Both teams have fared better against right-handers than left-handers this year, so a southpaw vs. southpaw matchup should limit scoring.
Cole Ragans is coming off a quality start (zero runs on four hits with eight Ks in 6.0 IP vs. Baltimore) and was locked in last month, posting a 1.08 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with 26 Ks in four September starts (25.0 IP). New York ranks 1st in wRC+ vs. righties, but falls to 10th vs. lefties and can struggle to produce runs sans the long ball. Ragans keeps the ball in the yard (career 0.78 HR/9) and fared well against the Yanks about a month ago (two runs with seven strikeouts in six innings).
Carlos Rodon was much better in the second half of the season (7-2 with a 2.91 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and .210 opponent BA in 12 starts), and allowed only three earned runs in two outings versus the Royals this season. Kansas City has been a better-hitting club at home and against right-handers, as it ranks 26th in wRC+ against lefties (84) and 21st on the road (92 wRC+). It struggled even more against left-handers over the final two months of the season, posting a 66 wRC+ (29th).
These bullpens aren't normally elite, but there's reason to believe in them tonight. Neither pen will be on the hook for too many innings, so bettors should expect lively arms who will string together outs. With a day off before and after game two, KC and NY will be able to rely only on their high-leverage relievers.
I can't see a value play on either side in tonight's Royals-Yankees game and prefer a wager on the total. The under, 6-4 in the last ten meetings between these ballclubs, is my bet with the total at 7.5 runs scored.
Both teams have fared better against right-handers than left-handers this year, so a southpaw vs. southpaw matchup should limit scoring.
Cole Ragans is coming off a quality start (zero runs on four hits with eight Ks in 6.0 IP vs. Baltimore) and was locked in last month, posting a 1.08 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with 26 Ks in four September starts (25.0 IP). New York ranks 1st in wRC+ vs. righties, but falls to 10th vs. lefties and can struggle to produce runs sans the long ball. Ragans keeps the ball in the yard (career 0.78 HR/9) and fared well against the Yanks about a month ago (two runs with seven strikeouts in six innings).
Carlos Rodon was much better in the second half of the season (7-2 with a 2.91 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and .210 opponent BA in 12 starts), and allowed only three earned runs in two outings versus the Royals this season. Kansas City has been a better-hitting club at home and against right-handers, as it ranks 26th in wRC+ against lefties (84) and 21st on the road (92 wRC+). It struggled even more against left-handers over the final two months of the season, posting a 66 wRC+ (29th).
These bullpens aren't normally elite, but there's reason to believe in them tonight. Neither pen will be on the hook for too many innings, so bettors should expect lively arms who will string together outs. With a day off before and after game two, KC and NY will be able to rely only on their high-leverage relievers.
