PREMIUM
YANKEES ML: BEST BET
(MLB) Yankees (NYY) vs. Royals (KAN),
Money Line: -115.00 Yankees (NYY) (Away)
Result: Win
Money Line: -115.00 Yankees (NYY) (Away)
Result: Win
New York will get the best out of its lineup on Wednesday in KC, giving Clark Schmidt the run support he needs to outpitch Seth Lugo.
The Yankees looked mediocre on Monday at home, but I expect them to fare better without their home fans hovering over them with nervous energy today. A lot has been made of their inability to consistently score runs when Aaron Judge and Juan Soto aren't crushing the baseball, and while that point has merit, it's worth noting that some of their secondary stars perform better away from the Bronx, especially Anthony Volpe, Gleyber Torres and Alex Verdugo (average 9 wRC+ points better on the road).
They'll be facing Seth Lugo, a pitcher who regressed in the second half of the year (6-7 in 18 starts with a 3.54 ERA) after dominating in the first half (10-2 record with a 2.40 ERA). While he shut down the Yankees once, his lack of consistency since the All-Star break is a concern, as are his poor home splits this season (7-6 with 44 runs in 17 starts at home compared to 9-3 with 31 runs in 16 road starts). That isn't shocking, as Kauffman Stadium is a hitter-friendly ballpark, specifically the best park for hitting doubles in MLB. While Soto and Judge will still be able to hit the ball out of the yard at Kauffman, the more hit-friendly environment should aid New York's other hitters, creating more rally opportunities for the visitors.
I'm also bullish on Schmidt to perform well in this spot. The righty got the nod from manager Aaron Boone instead of Luis Gil, who can be electric but also erratic. Schmidt is the most trustworthy option for Wednesday's game. While he only made 16 starts due to injury, he held all but one of his opponents to three or fewer runs and sports a 9.81 K/9 ratio with a 116+ Stuff Rating, which is higher than Gerrit Cole's. He also had the second-lowest hard-hit percentage in New York's rotation and the lowest home run/fly ball ratio.
The Yankees had the best road record (50-31) in MLB this season. While today's game isn't a must-win, a loss would put a lot of pressure on the Bronx Bombers to save their season on the road. I believe they'll make a statement on Wednesday, putting the baseball world on notice that they are still legit World Series contenders.
The Yankees looked mediocre on Monday at home, but I expect them to fare better without their home fans hovering over them with nervous energy today. A lot has been made of their inability to consistently score runs when Aaron Judge and Juan Soto aren't crushing the baseball, and while that point has merit, it's worth noting that some of their secondary stars perform better away from the Bronx, especially Anthony Volpe, Gleyber Torres and Alex Verdugo (average 9 wRC+ points better on the road).
They'll be facing Seth Lugo, a pitcher who regressed in the second half of the year (6-7 in 18 starts with a 3.54 ERA) after dominating in the first half (10-2 record with a 2.40 ERA). While he shut down the Yankees once, his lack of consistency since the All-Star break is a concern, as are his poor home splits this season (7-6 with 44 runs in 17 starts at home compared to 9-3 with 31 runs in 16 road starts). That isn't shocking, as Kauffman Stadium is a hitter-friendly ballpark, specifically the best park for hitting doubles in MLB. While Soto and Judge will still be able to hit the ball out of the yard at Kauffman, the more hit-friendly environment should aid New York's other hitters, creating more rally opportunities for the visitors.
I'm also bullish on Schmidt to perform well in this spot. The righty got the nod from manager Aaron Boone instead of Luis Gil, who can be electric but also erratic. Schmidt is the most trustworthy option for Wednesday's game. While he only made 16 starts due to injury, he held all but one of his opponents to three or fewer runs and sports a 9.81 K/9 ratio with a 116+ Stuff Rating, which is higher than Gerrit Cole's. He also had the second-lowest hard-hit percentage in New York's rotation and the lowest home run/fly ball ratio.
The Yankees had the best road record (50-31) in MLB this season. While today's game isn't a must-win, a loss would put a lot of pressure on the Bronx Bombers to save their season on the road. I believe they'll make a statement on Wednesday, putting the baseball world on notice that they are still legit World Series contenders.
