I'm backing KC to win at home on Thursday, forcing a game five. The Royals had plenty of chances to steal a win yesterday and the Yankees needed an unlikely late home run to hold them off after taking an early lead.

The Royals were tough to strike out at Kauffman Stadium this season (17.9% K%, the lowest in MLB), and Gerrit Cole's strikeout rate (25.7%) is at its lowest since 2017. KC also hits right-handers better at home (100 wRC+, 7.8% BB%, 17.9% K%) than on the road (92 wRC+, 6.6% BB%, 20.9% K%). Cole didn't perform like an ace in game one (four runs on seven hits and two walks), surrendering 11 hard-hit balls (the most all season) and three Barrels. He also only got six whiffs on 43 swings in that home start.

Despite pitching in a hitter-friendly ballpark, Michael Wacha has been better at Kauffman (7-3 with a 2.89 ERA) than on the road (6-5 with a 3.78 ERA) this season. He is 11-3 in 19 night games, too. The Yankees looked fine offensively on Wednesday, but it was the type of performance that has me fading them tonight. Will their big bats come up clutch? We haven't seen Aaron Judge or Juan Soto crush any baseballs this series, and the layoff they had with their first-round bye may have them off their A-games.

Both bullpens can be shaky, but if the Royals take a late lead, I'm confident their pen will get the necessary outs to stave off elimination.