PREMIUM
CLE-NYY: OVER 7.5
(MLB) Guardians (CLE) vs. Yankees (NYY),
Total: 7.50 | 100.00 Over
Result: Loss
Total: 7.50 | 100.00 Over
Result: Loss
I'm betting on the total to be over 7.5 runs in Game 1 of the ALCS.
The Guardians match up well against Yankees' starter Carlos Rodon, who had his struggles against a righty-heavy Kansas City lineup in the last series. He allowed four runs and seven hits in just 3.2 innings, unraveling in the fourth after three solid frames to start the game. KC hit four balls over 100 MPH in that game, and while Rodon fanned seven Royals, he's unlikely to generate as many whiffs against the Guardians, who don't strike out often (20.7% K% vs. lefties, 8th-lowest in MLB). The Yankees' starter has a home run problem vs. righty hitters too, as they accounted for 28 of his 31 HR allowed, posting a a .454 SLG and a .330 wOBA against him. If he can't last deep enough into the game, NY's average bullpen won't be reliable enough to keep Cleveland off the scoreboard, either.
The Yankees should have success against Guardians' starter Alex Cobb, too. The righty has only pitched once since Sept. 1 and allowed several hard-hit balls in his postseason outing versus Detroit, despite only throwing 41 pitches. He generated just one whiff in 17 swings. New York, which led MLB in wRC+ (120) and wOBA (.336) against right-handers this season, should make plenty of contact tonight. I'm also confident the Guardians' bullpen will be vulnerable after pitching a lot in the NLDS. The come-down from the high of winning that tense series and short rest/travel puts them in a tough spot today against the Bronx Bombers.
Bet on the over at 7.5!
The Guardians match up well against Yankees' starter Carlos Rodon, who had his struggles against a righty-heavy Kansas City lineup in the last series. He allowed four runs and seven hits in just 3.2 innings, unraveling in the fourth after three solid frames to start the game. KC hit four balls over 100 MPH in that game, and while Rodon fanned seven Royals, he's unlikely to generate as many whiffs against the Guardians, who don't strike out often (20.7% K% vs. lefties, 8th-lowest in MLB). The Yankees' starter has a home run problem vs. righty hitters too, as they accounted for 28 of his 31 HR allowed, posting a a .454 SLG and a .330 wOBA against him. If he can't last deep enough into the game, NY's average bullpen won't be reliable enough to keep Cleveland off the scoreboard, either.
The Yankees should have success against Guardians' starter Alex Cobb, too. The righty has only pitched once since Sept. 1 and allowed several hard-hit balls in his postseason outing versus Detroit, despite only throwing 41 pitches. He generated just one whiff in 17 swings. New York, which led MLB in wRC+ (120) and wOBA (.336) against right-handers this season, should make plenty of contact tonight. I'm also confident the Guardians' bullpen will be vulnerable after pitching a lot in the NLDS. The come-down from the high of winning that tense series and short rest/travel puts them in a tough spot today against the Bronx Bombers.
Bet on the over at 7.5!
