PREMIUM
IOWA HAWKEYES -5.5
(NCAAF) Hawkeyes (IOW) vs. Spartans (MSU),
Point Spread: -5.50 | -110.00 Hawkeyes (IOW) (Away)
Result: Loss
Point Spread: -5.50 | -110.00 Hawkeyes (IOW) (Away)
Result: Loss
Betting Trend: Iowa is 37-23 as a favorite of less than seven points under HC Kirk Ferentz.
I jumped on the opportunity to bet on Iowa to cover the 5.5-point spread, but am comfortable recommending this up to 6.5 points.
The Hawkeyes have advantages on both sides of the ball, plus special teams. MSU is extremely turnover-prone with sophomore QB Aidan Chiles (15 turnover-worthy plays) going through a learning curve in his first year as a starter, ranking 121st nationally in Havoc Allowed. Even after a bye week, I don't see the Spartans eliminating their costly mistakes. Iowa blitzes very infrequently, but can still get after Chiles, who has been pressured on 34% of his dropbacks this season. MSU's o-line is beaten up, and it wasn't a deep or experienced group to begin with. Chiles will also be attempting to throw against one of the best secondaries in the country, as Iowa ranks third nationally in PFF's coverage grade. The Hawkeyes have seven INTs and seven forced fumbles this year.
On defense, MSU will struggle up front against an Iowa front that will establish the ground game early (14th in rushing yards/game) with Kaleb Johnson (118 carries for 937 yards (7.9 YPC) and 12 scores). The junior tailback is tough to bring down, averaging 5.8 yards after contact, and Michigan State ranks 99th in PFF tackle grading and explosive plays allowed.
I jumped on the opportunity to bet on Iowa to cover the 5.5-point spread, but am comfortable recommending this up to 6.5 points.
The Hawkeyes have advantages on both sides of the ball, plus special teams. MSU is extremely turnover-prone with sophomore QB Aidan Chiles (15 turnover-worthy plays) going through a learning curve in his first year as a starter, ranking 121st nationally in Havoc Allowed. Even after a bye week, I don't see the Spartans eliminating their costly mistakes. Iowa blitzes very infrequently, but can still get after Chiles, who has been pressured on 34% of his dropbacks this season. MSU's o-line is beaten up, and it wasn't a deep or experienced group to begin with. Chiles will also be attempting to throw against one of the best secondaries in the country, as Iowa ranks third nationally in PFF's coverage grade. The Hawkeyes have seven INTs and seven forced fumbles this year.
On defense, MSU will struggle up front against an Iowa front that will establish the ground game early (14th in rushing yards/game) with Kaleb Johnson (118 carries for 937 yards (7.9 YPC) and 12 scores). The junior tailback is tough to bring down, averaging 5.8 yards after contact, and Michigan State ranks 99th in PFF tackle grading and explosive plays allowed.
