I'm jumping on the under before it goes under the key number of 37. Since 2019, the under has cashed 73% of the time when the total is set at 37 or below. Since 2010, the under has cashed 74% of the time in Thursday Night games when the under is 40 or below.

The Saints lost QB Derek Carr to an oblique injury last week and rookie Spencer Rattler had an uneven debut in his absence vs. Tampa, crashing in the 2nd half after a promising 1st half. He was picked off twice in the fourth quarter and sacked five times (four in the second half), completing only 11 of 23 passes for 103 yards after halftime. On top of that, WR Chris Olave suffered another concussion last week and didn't return. He is questionable to play after a quick turnaround on Thursday, and the Saints' offensive line is really banged up. The Broncos defense allows the fourth-lowest EPA per play and third-fewest yards per play. They are also fourth in defensive DVOA and fourth in defensive grade, per PFF.

The Saints were gashed by the Buccaneers on Sunday, but will Bo Nix and the Broncos — who didn't score until the 4th quarter vs. the Chargers — change that? I don't see that happening. New Orleans was ranked in the top eight in defensive DVOA entering Sunday and should show more backbone against a beatable opponent at home.