This spread is too generous, as I won't be surprised if the Illini win straight-up. Yes, they nearly got humbled last week versus Purdue, but getting past that obstacle should work in their favor. This is a huge game for Illinois, as this game and a trip to Oregon up next will make or break its season, as there are four winnable games after those two.

Michigan has been underwhelming on offense this season, ranking 16th in the Big Ten in total offense, 15th in offensive touchdowns, and last in passing offense. The injuries to Wolverine DBs Ja’Den McBurrows and Rod Moore are troublesome, too. Illinois QB Luke Altmyer has been great this year, completing 67.7 percent of his passes for 1,426 yards, 14 TDs and one pick. While the Illini will be without leading rusher Kaden Feagin, junior Josh McCray (41 carries for 181 yards and three TDs) and sophomore Aidan Laughery (27 carries for 145 yards) will pick up the slack.

In matchups between two ranked teams, home teams that have been single-digit favorites or underdogs are 54-16 SU and 47-20-3 ATS (70.1%) since 2017.