FREE
OREGON-PURDUE OVER 60.5
(NCAAF) Ducks (ORE) vs. Boilermakers (PUR),
Total: 60.50 | -113.00 Over
Result: Loss
Total: 60.50 | -113.00 Over
Result: Loss
Betting Trend: The over is 8-3 in Purdue's last 11 games (+5.80 units/48% ROI).
The Boilermakers rank 35th in EPA/Rush, and their offensive line is 37th in Offensive Line Yards. Their QB situation looked more competent with Ryan Browne under center, and the lack of game tape on the frosh will work in the home team's favor. His dual-threat ability should lead to more big-play opportunities for the home team, especially if he can scramble out of the pocket to make plays with his arm downfield.
The Oregon defense ranks 116th in explosive rushing allowed, meaning they give up a lot of big runs, and they haven't been stout in the red zone, as opponents are scoring on 93.8% of their trips inside the 20-yard line. The Ducks rank 111th in Defensive Finishing Drives, allowing 4.4 points per scoring opportunity, and the Boilermakers are averaging 4.3 points per scoring opportunity when they cross the 40-yard line, which is 20th-best in the nation. I expect the home team to run the football and put points on the board throughout the contest.
The Ducks will have the Boilermakers' linebackers and defensive backs flying around trying to tackle in space, which isn't a positive for the home team (125th in tackling and 125th in coverage, per PFF). The visitors are significantly stronger up front and will bully Purdue in the trenches (125th in line yards and 118th in stuff rate). Purdue is allowing 7.1 yards per play on average (sixth-worst) and will struggle against Ducks QB Dillon Gabriel, who is a big play threat on every snap, as he has completed nearly 60 percent of his passes over 10 air yards.
The Boilermakers rank 35th in EPA/Rush, and their offensive line is 37th in Offensive Line Yards. Their QB situation looked more competent with Ryan Browne under center, and the lack of game tape on the frosh will work in the home team's favor. His dual-threat ability should lead to more big-play opportunities for the home team, especially if he can scramble out of the pocket to make plays with his arm downfield.
The Oregon defense ranks 116th in explosive rushing allowed, meaning they give up a lot of big runs, and they haven't been stout in the red zone, as opponents are scoring on 93.8% of their trips inside the 20-yard line. The Ducks rank 111th in Defensive Finishing Drives, allowing 4.4 points per scoring opportunity, and the Boilermakers are averaging 4.3 points per scoring opportunity when they cross the 40-yard line, which is 20th-best in the nation. I expect the home team to run the football and put points on the board throughout the contest.
The Ducks will have the Boilermakers' linebackers and defensive backs flying around trying to tackle in space, which isn't a positive for the home team (125th in tackling and 125th in coverage, per PFF). The visitors are significantly stronger up front and will bully Purdue in the trenches (125th in line yards and 118th in stuff rate). Purdue is allowing 7.1 yards per play on average (sixth-worst) and will struggle against Ducks QB Dillon Gabriel, who is a big play threat on every snap, as he has completed nearly 60 percent of his passes over 10 air yards.
