I was already leaning Jacksonville's way before the Packers' injury report was released, which makes this an official bet for us.

This is a must-win spot for the home team, but I like them to cover the four-point spread at home with a more dependable ground game with Tank Bigsby (26 carries for 118 yards and two TDs last week).

Green Bay could be without two of its top receivers, Christian Watson and Jayden Reed, its top cover corner (Jaire Alexander), along with its top two DTs, two starting o-linemen, and its best LB. The Packers squeaked out a win over Houston at home last week but didn't cover. I don't see them covering the spread this week and wouldn't be shocked if they lost straight-up, either.