I considered both sides of this wager, but came back to my original lean: Texans to cover the spread.

Both teams are playing well, but I can't bet against Houston at home, as they are 10-3 at NRG with QB CJ Stroud, posting an average win margin of 11.0 points in the 10 victories. Indy has won four of five, but it barely beat a beaten-down Dolphins team last week and may have been better off with Joe Flacco than Anthony Richardson, who has completed only 48.8% of his passes with one TD and five INTs since these teams met in week one.

While the final score of that game was close, it was misleading, as Houston outgained Indy by 114 yards and dominated the time of possession. Without two long TD passes by AR-15, the Colts wouldn't have kept it close, either.

Houston has realistic aspirations of a deep postseason run, while Indianapolis is simply trying its best to be competitive. The better team will win and cover on Sunday, gaining significant ground in the division standings!