Betting Trends: The under is 65-40 in Chiefs home games coached by Andy Reid. KC has hit their team total under in six of its last eight home games, as well.

I don't see a great side to pick in this game, but I do like a wager on the total to be under 46 points. KC will establish the run early and bleed the game clock against the TB defense at home, only throwing the ball when it needs to. It doesn't need to get in a shootout with the Bucs.

Baker Mayfield managed to throw for 300-plus yards last week vs. Atlanta without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, but he'll struggle against the Chiefs. KC is ninth in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (-0.067), while Atlanta ranks 23rd (0.044). Kansas City’s run defense is stout (2nd in rush yards allowed per game) and the secondary will fare fine in obvious passing downs against the injury-riddled Bucs' receiving corps.