PREMIUM
KNICKS-ROCKETS OVER 217.5: BEST BET NBA
(NBA) Knicks (NYK) vs. Rockets (HOU),
Total: 217.50 | -110.00 Over
Result: Loss
Total: 217.50 | -110.00 Over
Result: Loss
Betting Trend: The over is 24-9 in the Knicks' last 33 games (+14.10 units/39% ROI).
NY's offensive identity has changed, as it no longer relies on offensive rebounding to score with Isaiah Hartenstein in OKC and Mitchell Robinson injured. The new Knicks rely on shot-making and jump shots, especially from the mid-range, although they shoot a respectable percentage from the long-range, too. NY will attack Houston's mediocre perimeter defense (23rd in opponent 3PT%), with Karl-Anthony Towns (64.7 3PT% this season and career 39.9 3PT%), Jalen Brunson (50.0 3PT% and career 39.9 3PT%) and Mikal Bridges (38.7 3PT% and career 37.5 3PT%) doing the most damage from beyond the arc.
The Rockets will also score enough to contribute to the total going over 217. NY isn't as defensive-minded as it's been in past seasons under Tom Thibodeau, ranking 28th in opponent FG%. The Knicks allow the most three-point attempts per game — 47.6% of their opponents' shots are from long range — and their opponents shoot a high percentage (35.8%) despite all of those attempts. Alperen Sengun will attack the Knicks' inferior rim defense, kicking out to Houston's open shooters when the defense collapses on him.
While these teams are slow-paced, averaging fewer possessions than most teams, they value their possessions by taking great care of the ball. Houston averages the fewest turnovers and New York averages the sixth-fewest — plus neither team forces many turnovers.
Could the Rockets score an upset in this game? Certainly. However, since that looks like a close call, I like the value play on the total to be over 217 points.
NY's offensive identity has changed, as it no longer relies on offensive rebounding to score with Isaiah Hartenstein in OKC and Mitchell Robinson injured. The new Knicks rely on shot-making and jump shots, especially from the mid-range, although they shoot a respectable percentage from the long-range, too. NY will attack Houston's mediocre perimeter defense (23rd in opponent 3PT%), with Karl-Anthony Towns (64.7 3PT% this season and career 39.9 3PT%), Jalen Brunson (50.0 3PT% and career 39.9 3PT%) and Mikal Bridges (38.7 3PT% and career 37.5 3PT%) doing the most damage from beyond the arc.
The Rockets will also score enough to contribute to the total going over 217. NY isn't as defensive-minded as it's been in past seasons under Tom Thibodeau, ranking 28th in opponent FG%. The Knicks allow the most three-point attempts per game — 47.6% of their opponents' shots are from long range — and their opponents shoot a high percentage (35.8%) despite all of those attempts. Alperen Sengun will attack the Knicks' inferior rim defense, kicking out to Houston's open shooters when the defense collapses on him.
While these teams are slow-paced, averaging fewer possessions than most teams, they value their possessions by taking great care of the ball. Houston averages the fewest turnovers and New York averages the sixth-fewest — plus neither team forces many turnovers.
Could the Rockets score an upset in this game? Certainly. However, since that looks like a close call, I like the value play on the total to be over 217 points.
