The Zags boast the experience edge in this game, as Ryan Nembhard (12.6 PPG and 6.9 APG) is back to run the offense, Graham Ike (16.5 PPG and 7.4 RPG) is holding down the paint and six of the Bulldogs’ top seven scorers from last season return. Oh, and Gonzaga added two of the best transfers in the country, Michael Ajayi (17.2 PPG and 9.9 RPG at Pepperdine) and Khalif Battle (14.8 PPG at Arkansas). Nembhard and Ike will dominate the pick and roll, which is important because the Bears have several quality guards and defend the perimeter very well.

I also like Battle in this matchup, as he draws a lot of fouls (6.7 FT attempts per game last season). He was the only D-I player (men's or women's) over the past 25 seasons to have three straight games with 30+ points and 14+ made free throws. Getting Duke transfer Jeremy Roach and the Bears' other guards in foul trouble would be impactful. I also believe the Zags can get Miami transfer big man Norchad Omier in foul trouble, which would practically eliminate their interior presence.

I like Gonzaga to push the tempo, preventing the Bears from getting comfortable in their half-court defense. On the other side of the court, the Bulldogs can limit Baylor's offense by hitting the boards, eliminating deadly second-chance scoring opportunities. The Bears are slow-tempo, but they are an elite three-point shooting squad. They'll have a tough time keeping up with the high-scoring Zags if they're limited to one shot at a time.

Bet on Gonzaga to win and cover, getting its revenge for the 2021 national championship loss to Baylor.