This game projects to fall under the 143.5 total.

The Tigers ranked first nationally in two-point defense (43%) last season and have an elite rim defender in Johni Broome, who will allow Auburn's guards to defend the perimeter more aggressively against the Catamounts, who play spread out offensively to attain spot-up jumpers. The Tigers ranked fourth nationally in spot-up PPP allowed last year (.79), were top-50 in three-point rate and forced a lot of low-quality threes. Vermont lacks an interior scoring presence to draw the defense in, as well.

The Tigers will attempt to play aggressively defensively to get out in transition, but Vermont will prevent that by taking care of the ball (fourth nationally in fast break points allowed and ninth in offensive turnover rate last season) and playing at a snail's pace, as it is projected to rank 358th in tempo, per KenPom. The Catamounts are stout defensively inside the arc (28th nationally in two-point defense last year) and don't commit unnecessary fouls (37th in free-throw rate); plus they hold their own in the rebounding department (ninth in defensive rebounding rate).

With a primetime battle vs. Houston on Saturday looming, I see Auburn overlooking this game a bit, too.