UT Arlington should not be getting this many points. It features several high-quality college upperclassmen in JUCO All-American Raysean Seamster, Diante Smith (First Team All-Southland last year) and Jaden Wells (Division II All-American). It's a well-coached team that surprised many people last season (third-best ATS record), covering in close games against New Mexico, Grand Canyon and Texas Tech.

The Trojans aren't a superteam built with transfers from power programs. They are undoubtedly talented, but their roster is mostly comprised of mid-major transfers who excelled at their previous stops. In short, I don't believe the talent gap is as wide as this spread seems to suggest. Bet the Mavericks to cover at +16.5.