PREMIUM
UNDER 153.5: TROY-ARKANSAS
(NCAAB) Trojans (TROY) vs. Razorbacks (ARK),
Total: 153.50 | -110.00 Under
Result: Win
Total: 153.50 | -110.00 Under
Result: Win
I believe Troy will make this game more competitive than the spread suggests and while I initially considered the Trojans to cover, I actually prefer the under at 153.5.
While the Hogs have been excellent in transition, their offense stalls out in the half-court, as they have relied far too much on iso-ball. That has resulted in only 93 points on 117 half-court possessions (.79 PPP, 17th percentile). Their floor spacing is pathetic, which hasn't allowed them to find open looks on the perimeter (39 three-point attempts this season). Troy is tough on the perimeter, as it has active guards with high steal rates. The Trojans press at the tenth-highest rate nationally too, which will throw the Razorbacks off their offensive flow.
With big man Jonas Aidoo limited by injury (16 combined minutes played this season), the Arkansas offense is too limited. Troy returns 70 percent of its minutes from last season's squad, while the Razorbacks are a mix of transfers and Kentucky recruits Coach Cal brought over when he switched sides. I expect both teams to fare well on the defensive end — Arkansas ranks 12th nationally in defensive efficiency — and the offenses to miss the mark in their half-court sets, leading to a lower-scoring game.
While the Hogs have been excellent in transition, their offense stalls out in the half-court, as they have relied far too much on iso-ball. That has resulted in only 93 points on 117 half-court possessions (.79 PPP, 17th percentile). Their floor spacing is pathetic, which hasn't allowed them to find open looks on the perimeter (39 three-point attempts this season). Troy is tough on the perimeter, as it has active guards with high steal rates. The Trojans press at the tenth-highest rate nationally too, which will throw the Razorbacks off their offensive flow.
With big man Jonas Aidoo limited by injury (16 combined minutes played this season), the Arkansas offense is too limited. Troy returns 70 percent of its minutes from last season's squad, while the Razorbacks are a mix of transfers and Kentucky recruits Coach Cal brought over when he switched sides. I expect both teams to fare well on the defensive end — Arkansas ranks 12th nationally in defensive efficiency — and the offenses to miss the mark in their half-court sets, leading to a lower-scoring game.