St. John's defense is stout, but its offense won't shine on Thursday against a Baylor squad that will pack it in, forcing the Red Storm to shoot their way to victory in the halfcourt. That's not going to work — St. John's was held to 66 points on 21 total field goals with 15 turnovers by Wagner in a similar way. Like the Seahawks, the Bears prefer a slower tempo, which will limit the Johnnies' possession count.

Baylor has a variety of offensive weapons, too. It has table-setters in Duke transfer Jeremy Roach and Robert Wright III, rebounding machines in Josh Ojianwuna and Miami transfer Norchad Omier, an athletic phenom in freshman VJ Edgecombe and three-point threats in Jayden Nunn (48% on 6.3 attempts per game) and Roach (38% on 5.3 attempts per game).

The Bears (48th in strength of schedule) are ready for this game. The Red Storm (248th in strength of schedule) is stepping up a weight class. Bet on Baylor to cover at -2.5.