This is a good bounce-back spot for the Hawkeyes, who ran into an absurdly hot-shooting Wisconsin team in their last game. Big Ten teams are historically better at covering the spread at home (655-557-25 for +47 units since 2016) vs. conference opponents and are 166-142-10 ATS (+15 units) in conference home games after a loss (since 2015).

Iowa will get a lot of open shots against Nebraska's defense, as the Hawkeyes thrive on the perimeter and the Huskers pack it in to defend the paint. NU allows its opponents to attempt a ton of threes (355th nationally in 3-point rate allowed) and Iowa spaces the court well, shooting 38.3% (29th) from beyond the arc. Despite giving up so many threes, Nebraska's opponents shoot a low percentage, which is unlikely to hold up over time given the quantity and quality of the three-point shots their opponents take. The Hawkeyes are also great in transition (9th nationally in fast-break points), which is a plus in this matchup, as they force a lot of turnovers (21st in forced turnovers). The Huskers are fairly average in terms of ball security, averaging 12.1 turnovers per game (173rd).

On the flip side, Nebraska won six straight games, including a win over UCLA over the weekend. Still, the other five games were against less challenging competition, including Murray State (No. 114 in KenPom's ranking), Hawaii (No. 174) and Southern (No. 246). The Huskers also benefitted from playing a Bruins squad making their first trip east of the Rockies this season and their first-ever foray into traditional Big Ten country. That showed in the box score, as UCLA managed just 58 points on 38 percent shooting, struggling mightily from three-point range (4-for-28) and committing 15 turnovers. There's no denying that Iowa's defense is sub-par, but they have plenty of scoring advantages on the other end to make up for it.

Bet on the Hawkeyes' superior offense (22nd in offensive efficiency) to make up for their poor performance against the Badgers, winning and covering the spread at home.