PREMIUM
Illinois/ Penn State Under 163.5
(NCAAB) Nittany Lions (PSU) vs. Fighting Illini (ILL),
Total: 163.50 | -105.00 Under
Result: Win
Total: 163.50 | -105.00 Under
Result: Win
Betting Trend: The under is 9-3 in Penn State's last 12 road games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI).
What stands out to me when analyzing this matchup is Penn State's propensity for taking close-range shots, as it attempts the fifth-highest rate of near-proximity shots in the country. While that's a sound strategy, Illinois ranks 38th in opponent rim FG% and does a great job preventing opposing teams from obtaining second-chance scoring opportunities with offensive rebounds (Illinois is 1st nationally in defensive rebounding). Average opponents convert just 2.9% of all second-chance opportunities against the Illini, the 2nd-best mark in the nation. On top of that, Illinois doesn't give up many free-throw attempts (46th in opponent free-throw attempt rate), which is important when handicapping Penn State games, as the Nittany Lions heavily rely on free throws (13th in free-throw attempt rate). Without those close buckets at the rim, second-chance opportunities and free throws, they'll be in for a rough game offensively, as Illinois has a great perimeter defense (28.2% opponent 3PT% and 34.3% opponent mid-range FG%) and Penn State shoots just 31.5% from three (265th).
While Illinois is an efficient offensive squad, it's also an inconsistent team. The Illini rank 289th in consistency and 346th in Paper Tiger factor, per Haslametrics. Penn State ranks 57th nationally in defensive efficiency and should have a bit of a rebounding advantage. It will allow the Illini to attempt more outside shots, but Illinois only shoots 34% from beyond the arc (174th), its weakest area on the court. I expect the Illini to win this game on defense, scoring enough to cover the spread, but not demolish the Lions as they did Oregon.
At 163.5 this total is too high — I see value in a wager on the under!
What stands out to me when analyzing this matchup is Penn State's propensity for taking close-range shots, as it attempts the fifth-highest rate of near-proximity shots in the country. While that's a sound strategy, Illinois ranks 38th in opponent rim FG% and does a great job preventing opposing teams from obtaining second-chance scoring opportunities with offensive rebounds (Illinois is 1st nationally in defensive rebounding). Average opponents convert just 2.9% of all second-chance opportunities against the Illini, the 2nd-best mark in the nation. On top of that, Illinois doesn't give up many free-throw attempts (46th in opponent free-throw attempt rate), which is important when handicapping Penn State games, as the Nittany Lions heavily rely on free throws (13th in free-throw attempt rate). Without those close buckets at the rim, second-chance opportunities and free throws, they'll be in for a rough game offensively, as Illinois has a great perimeter defense (28.2% opponent 3PT% and 34.3% opponent mid-range FG%) and Penn State shoots just 31.5% from three (265th).
While Illinois is an efficient offensive squad, it's also an inconsistent team. The Illini rank 289th in consistency and 346th in Paper Tiger factor, per Haslametrics. Penn State ranks 57th nationally in defensive efficiency and should have a bit of a rebounding advantage. It will allow the Illini to attempt more outside shots, but Illinois only shoots 34% from beyond the arc (174th), its weakest area on the court. I expect the Illini to win this game on defense, scoring enough to cover the spread, but not demolish the Lions as they did Oregon.
At 163.5 this total is too high — I see value in a wager on the under!
