PREMIUM
Illinois -9.5 over Penn State
(NCAAB) Nittany Lions (PSU) vs. Fighting Illini (ILL),
Point Spread: -9.50 | -110.00 Fighting Illini (ILL) (Home)
Result: Win
Point Spread: -9.50 | -110.00 Fighting Illini (ILL) (Home)
Result: Win
The Nittany Lions have been inefficient in their recent games, ranking 294th in momentum per Haslametrics.com. That includes their latest game at Indiana when they underperformed on both ends of the court, losing by six as eight-point spread favorites.
What stands out to me when analyzing this matchup is Penn State's propensity for taking close-range shots, as it attempts the fifth-highest rate of near-proximity shots in the country. While that's a sound strategy, Illinois ranks 38th in opponent rim FG% and does a great job preventing opposing teams from obtaining second-chance scoring opportunities with offensive rebounds (Illinois is 1st nationally in defensive rebounding). Average opponents convert just 2.9% of all second-chance opportunities against the Illini, the 2nd-best mark in the nation. On top of that, Illinois doesn't give up many free-throw attempts (46th in opponent free-throw attempt rate), which is important when handicapping Penn State games, as the Nittany Lions heavily rely on free throws (13th in free-throw attempt rate). Without those close buckets at the rim, second-chance opportunities and free throws, they'll be in for a rough game offensively, as Illinois has a great perimeter defense (28.2% opponent 3PT% and 34.3% opponent mid-range FG%) and Penn State shoots just 31.5% from three (265th).
Offensively, the lllini are 16th nationally in offensive efficiency, ranking in the top 50 in three of our four primary field goal categories. They convert 46.8% of their mid-range jumpers (37th) and 66.1% of their rim field goal attempts (17th), making them one of the top two-point shooting teams in the country at 57.8% (28th). Illinois isn't shy to let it fly from three-point range (17th in three-point attempt rate) either, which is important considering Penn State allows more opportunities from the outside. It won't shock me if 40% of Illinois' shots come from three-point range on Wednesday.
PSU has underperformed defensively in its last four games, especially its last two games vs. Northwestern and Indiana. It has been a worse team on the road, as well. Illinois has more momentum, plays better at home and has significant defensive advantages that will give the Nittany Lions fits. Bet on the Illini to pick up a conference win by double digits on Wednesday evening!
What stands out to me when analyzing this matchup is Penn State's propensity for taking close-range shots, as it attempts the fifth-highest rate of near-proximity shots in the country. While that's a sound strategy, Illinois ranks 38th in opponent rim FG% and does a great job preventing opposing teams from obtaining second-chance scoring opportunities with offensive rebounds (Illinois is 1st nationally in defensive rebounding). Average opponents convert just 2.9% of all second-chance opportunities against the Illini, the 2nd-best mark in the nation. On top of that, Illinois doesn't give up many free-throw attempts (46th in opponent free-throw attempt rate), which is important when handicapping Penn State games, as the Nittany Lions heavily rely on free throws (13th in free-throw attempt rate). Without those close buckets at the rim, second-chance opportunities and free throws, they'll be in for a rough game offensively, as Illinois has a great perimeter defense (28.2% opponent 3PT% and 34.3% opponent mid-range FG%) and Penn State shoots just 31.5% from three (265th).
Offensively, the lllini are 16th nationally in offensive efficiency, ranking in the top 50 in three of our four primary field goal categories. They convert 46.8% of their mid-range jumpers (37th) and 66.1% of their rim field goal attempts (17th), making them one of the top two-point shooting teams in the country at 57.8% (28th). Illinois isn't shy to let it fly from three-point range (17th in three-point attempt rate) either, which is important considering Penn State allows more opportunities from the outside. It won't shock me if 40% of Illinois' shots come from three-point range on Wednesday.
PSU has underperformed defensively in its last four games, especially its last two games vs. Northwestern and Indiana. It has been a worse team on the road, as well. Illinois has more momentum, plays better at home and has significant defensive advantages that will give the Nittany Lions fits. Bet on the Illini to pick up a conference win by double digits on Wednesday evening!
