PREMIUM
OHIO ST -5.5: COTTON BOWL
(NCAAF) Buckeyes (OSU) vs. Longhorns (TEX),
Point Spread: -5.50 | -113.00 Buckeyes (OSU) (Away)
Result: Win
Point Spread: -5.50 | -113.00 Buckeyes (OSU) (Away)
Result: Win
I am fully convinced that Ohio State is a buzzsaw machine that will take down everything on its path after beating Oregon. I hesitated to buy in after the Tennessee game, but the Buckeyes' demolition of the Ducks was a STATEMENT. This Buckeyes team is stacked with talent and is giving off 2019 LSU vibes...
Ohio State's passing game will gash Texas in the middle of the field with Emeka Egbuka in the slot and TreVeyon Henderson coming out of the backfield. OC Chip Kelly has shifted to a more pass-oriented attack on standard downs, trusting QB Will Howard (zero turnover-worthy plays with five big-time throws in the previous 2 CFP games). With Kelly's more aggressive approach, the Ohio State ground game has been excellent, with Henderson and Quinshon Judkins combining for 25 inside and outside zone attempts for 179 rushing yards vs. Oregon. However, Howard has been the difference-maker, as he has stepped up in a way that elevates this OSU offense to a nearly unstoppable level. While Texas has a legit defensive front and a very good secondary, the Buckeyes have what it takes to move the chains and find the end zone.
On the other side of the ball, I have significant concerns about the Longhorns offense. They played down to the competition last week vs. Arizona State, keeping the Sun Devils in the game. ASU racked up three sacks and nine tackles for loss — and Sparky isn't nearly as talented as OSU. The Buckeyes' run defense will be the x-factor after they stuffed the Ducks on 18 of their 20 rushing attempts in the Rose Bowl. OSU's run defense is elite (5th in rushing yards allowed) and Texas' ground game has been ineffective with Quintrevion Wisner and Jaydon Blue, especially in the outside zone read, a concept OSU defends regularly (59% Success Rate vs. outside zone). After rushing for nearly 300 yards vs. Clemson, Texas managed only 53 rushing yards on 30 carries vs. ASU. That's the type of performance I expect from the Longhorns in Friday's Cotton Bowl, putting pressure on QB Quinn Ewers to play perfect football. Given that the Horns are already sub-par in the red zone (108th in the nation in red zone scoring percentage), a lack of a complementary ground game is concerning, to say the least.
According to Pro Football Focus, Howard has 21 big-time throws and just 13 turnover-worthy passes in 14 games, while Ewers has 17 big-time throws and 19 turnover-worthy passes (with 36 fewer pass attempts). That's likely to be the difference in this matchup, as Howard will play to his ceiling and Ewers will get picked off once or twice, dooming the Longhorns' chances at winning or even covering the spread. Let's lay the points with Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl!
Ohio State's passing game will gash Texas in the middle of the field with Emeka Egbuka in the slot and TreVeyon Henderson coming out of the backfield. OC Chip Kelly has shifted to a more pass-oriented attack on standard downs, trusting QB Will Howard (zero turnover-worthy plays with five big-time throws in the previous 2 CFP games). With Kelly's more aggressive approach, the Ohio State ground game has been excellent, with Henderson and Quinshon Judkins combining for 25 inside and outside zone attempts for 179 rushing yards vs. Oregon. However, Howard has been the difference-maker, as he has stepped up in a way that elevates this OSU offense to a nearly unstoppable level. While Texas has a legit defensive front and a very good secondary, the Buckeyes have what it takes to move the chains and find the end zone.
On the other side of the ball, I have significant concerns about the Longhorns offense. They played down to the competition last week vs. Arizona State, keeping the Sun Devils in the game. ASU racked up three sacks and nine tackles for loss — and Sparky isn't nearly as talented as OSU. The Buckeyes' run defense will be the x-factor after they stuffed the Ducks on 18 of their 20 rushing attempts in the Rose Bowl. OSU's run defense is elite (5th in rushing yards allowed) and Texas' ground game has been ineffective with Quintrevion Wisner and Jaydon Blue, especially in the outside zone read, a concept OSU defends regularly (59% Success Rate vs. outside zone). After rushing for nearly 300 yards vs. Clemson, Texas managed only 53 rushing yards on 30 carries vs. ASU. That's the type of performance I expect from the Longhorns in Friday's Cotton Bowl, putting pressure on QB Quinn Ewers to play perfect football. Given that the Horns are already sub-par in the red zone (108th in the nation in red zone scoring percentage), a lack of a complementary ground game is concerning, to say the least.
According to Pro Football Focus, Howard has 21 big-time throws and just 13 turnover-worthy passes in 14 games, while Ewers has 17 big-time throws and 19 turnover-worthy passes (with 36 fewer pass attempts). That's likely to be the difference in this matchup, as Howard will play to his ceiling and Ewers will get picked off once or twice, dooming the Longhorns' chances at winning or even covering the spread. Let's lay the points with Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl!
