I'll lay the points with Michigan State. The Spartans have struggled to consistently knock down three-pointers, but they can and will in catch-and-shoot situations. I expect their ball movement to be crisp at home, generating much better open shots from long-range. With the three-ball in its arsenal, MSU will be tough to beat. It's a load to defend inside (2nd in the nation in near-proximity FG% and 35th in second-chance conversion percentage off offensive rebounds, per Haslametrics). State's defense is stout too, ranking 13th in opponent FG%, 40th in opponent 3PT% and 17th in opponent near-proximity FG% (vs. the average opponent).

The Spartans rise to the occasion against great competition, ranking 18th in Haslametrics' "Paper Tiger Factor." Illinois ranks 329th, suggesting the Illini beat up on bad competition but fall flat against great teams. Plus, the Illini are 353rd in the country in Haslametrics' consistency rating and 256th in the site's "Away From Home" metric.