The Nittany Lions aren't worth eight points vs. Rutgers, especially with star freshman guard Dylan Harper (20.1 PPG, 5.2 RPG and 4.4 APG) back from an illness that prevented him from playing altogether or limited him for three games. His playmaking and ballhandling will be important vs. PSU's pesky defense (21st in forced turnovers). The Knights already beat Penn State once, 80-76 in Piscataway on December 10, and that final score was misleading, as RU led by as many as 15 points. Rutgers dominated on the glass (46-32 rebounding advantage with 12 offensive rebounds) and outscored them 42-34 in the paint. That's impressive, as the Lions make their living inside the paint, ranking 3rd in near-proximity FG attempts. They average the ninth-closest shot proximity vs. the average opponent, per Haslametrics.com.

Following consecutive victories over UCLA and Nebraska, I trust the Knights to at least cover on the road against a Penn State squad that has lost four straight games.