WISCONSIN -2.5
(NCAAB) Badgers (WIS) vs. Wildcats (NW),
Point Spread: -2.50 | -104.00 Badgers (WIS) (Away)
Result: Win
The Badgers played uncharacteristically in their 76-68 loss at Maryland, as they were off the mark from three-point range (9-for-27 shooting) and at the foul line (15-for-21) with ten turnovers. They shot just 37.3 percent overall. This season, Wisconsin ranks 1st nationally in FT% (85.4%), 16th in FG% (49.0%), 22nd in 3PT% (38.8%) and 40th in turnover percentage vs. the average opponent, per Haslametrics. I don't expect them to be nearly as sloppy or inefficient Saturday against a Northwestern team that struggled defensively at home against Rutgers earlier this week, as the Scarlet Knights shot 57.1 percent, including 8 of 14 from three-point range. The Wildcats are also 16th in the Big Ten in scoring, averaging 74.1 PPG.

The Badgers average 81.8 points and allow 70.6. Dating back to last season, they are 28-1 straight-up when holding their opponent to 70 or fewer points, which I believe is a likelihood vs. Northwestern. They will win and cover this tiny spread, building off their 7-2-1 ATS record against the Wildcats in the last ten meetings between these Big Ten foes.