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I like the Rams to win straight-up as slight favorites at Dayton. VCU has a better profile for success, especially if the Flyers are off-course on offense. The visitors are well-balanced and have the momentum edge, ranking 12th in Haslametrics' Momentum metric, while Dayton ranks 244th. They have a significant edge in the rebounding department, as the Rams rank 22nd in offensive rebounding and the Flyers are 182nd in defensive rebounding. VCU takes advantage of its extra possessions, too (20th in potential quick points off offensive rebounds and 17th in second-chance conversion percentage).

That said, it's the other side of the ball that should help the Rams pull away. VCU is a top-25 defensive unit that pressures the basketball (24th in opponent turnovers) and turns those costly miscues into buckets (9th in potential points off breakaway steals). The Flyers will struggle to convert at the rim (VCU ranks 18th in opponent near-proximity FG%) and will be challenged on the perimeter (VCU ranks 41st in opponent 3PT% and 32nd in average opponent 3PT attempt rate).

Bet on VCU to pull away late and win straight-up!