The over is an appealing bet at 218.5, as long as Giannis plays. New York plays at a faster pace on the road (100.1 possessions per game) compared to home (97.7 possessions per game), per TeamRankings.com. That has resulted in a 19-19 over record away from MSG compared to a 13-26 over record at home.

Milwaukee ranks 6th in pace overall, averaging 104.7 possessions per game at home, and its offensive efficiency rating is higher at home. Given the Bucks' defensive limitations (19th in defensive rating), I like the over at 218.5 total points.