Sacramento hasn't been the same team since losing Malik Monk (15.4 PPG, 5.1 APG), and the loss of Kevin Huerter (career 38.2 3PT%) didn't help, either. Golden State, meanwhile, has been trending in the right direction (10-2 in its last 12). I expect the Warriors to limit the Kings from long range (11th in opponent 3PT%) and make Domantas Sabonis work hard at the rim, throwing Kevon Looney, Draymond Green, and Trayce Jackson-Davis at him. The latter has emerged late in the season, providing Golden State with a more athletic defender to size up Sabonis.

Offensively, the Warriors (38.0 3PT%) have a huge advantage against the Kings' perimeter defense (29th in opponent 3PT%) and should fare well at the rim (5th in rim FG%), as well. Klay Thompson has played well lately (23.1 PPG, 43.7 3PT% in the last seven games) and Green provides the mentality teams need in these types of games. Steph Curry (24.7 PPG and 46.7 3PT% in April) won't come up short tomorrow.

I like the spread at 2.5, but wouldn't go any higher.