The Lakers will do all they can to steal game one, and I don't see them conceding in the second half if they're down 12-14 points, pushing their luck with plenty of three-pointers. In the past, LeBron would have tried to will his team back into the game with aggressiveness, charging at the rim like a battering ram, but he's way past that. LA has several quality spot-up shooters who won't be shy when the ball comes their way.

Denver should push the pace more than usual against LA's poor transition defense (fifth-most transition opportunities in the league). It's not a bad strategy, given the altitude it plays at. We saw the Nuggets employ this strategy in the WC Finals last season.

With that said, I see betting value on the over at 226.5 total points.