The Bucks are a -5.6 in about 2,600 possessions without Giannis (calf) on the court, which is the equivalent point differential of a 28-win team, per Cleaning the Glass. Lillard (groin/abductor) may not suit up, but even if he does, he's unlikely to give the Bucks a lot of quality minutes. In the nearly 900 possessions Milwaukee played neither of its stars, it was a -15.4 in point differential! Indiana isn't a bad defensive team, either. Pascal Siakam, Myles Turner, and Aaron Nesmith are three quality defensive pieces who can lock up their matchups.

The Bucks are 23rd in defensive transition frequency and will struggle to defend the fast-paced Pacers, who were 17-12 vs. teams that were bottom-10 in transition frequency. The fun, run-and-gun Pacers are going to make the Bucks and coach Doc Rivers look bad today, plain and simple.

Indiana, winners of four of five regular season games versus Milwaukee, will win game one on the road tonight!