New York hasn't dominated this series, covering the run line once and losing straight-up in game one. It may have emptied its tank offensively yesterday, as Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and Anthony Rizzo homered. It didn't muster an extra-base hit or a run on Monday afternoon against lefty JP Sears, who fanned the Bronx Bombers seven times in his six frames. Sears had lackluster career stats vs. NY, making the Yankees -1.5 a popular bet among other "experts", but that projection failed to come to fruition. Once Sears exited, Oakland's solid bullpen shut the door on NY with ease.

I envision a similar scenario on Thursday night with southpaw Alex Wood toeing the rubber. He hasn't been dealing this season, but if he can last long enough into the game, the A's bullpen is good enough to give Oakland a shot at the upset. Yankees SP Nestor Cortes pitched well enough in his last start, but he hasn't been amazing in every outing this year (eight hits and two BBs in a loss to Arizona, plus eight combined runs with three HR allowed vs. Houston and Cleveland). In short, I feel confident the Yankees are getting too much respect in this spot, making the Oakland ML a valuable opportunity at better than +200 odds.

Forget the +1.5 run line — let's go BIG for a HUGE payout tonight!