SD SP Joe Musgrove (5.74 ERA) hasn't been trustworthy enough this season to predict he'll contain this Phillies lineup. He hasn't done a good job locating his curveball, which the Phils will handle with ease (fifth-best xwOBA against right-handed curveballs since the start of last year). In his last regular season start versus Philly, he gave up six runs, including homers to Kyle Schwarber and JT Realmuto. When he faced the Phillies in the playoffs later that season, he allowed four runs on eight hits and two walks, allowing another long ball to Schwarber. Plus, Bryce Harper is back in the lineup following his paternity leave. In his first game back, he launched a home run...

PHI SP Aaron Nola is trending up following consecutive solid starts. He has dominated SD in his last two outings, too (three runs allowed with 22 strikeouts in 15.2 combined innings). The Padres dug into their bullpen yesterday, failing to hold onto a late lead, and could be without a couple of arms tonight. The Phillies bullpen, however, is rested and ready to go.

In short, I feel confident the Phills have an advantage on the mound from start to finish and at the plate. They should be heavier favorites, so I'm digging the value of a wager on the Philadelphia moneyline at nearly even odds.