I liked Philly a lot yesterday (that was EASY money) and believe San Diego will get the best of the Phillies tonight...

Philadelphia ranks in the bottom half of the league in wRC+ (98) vs. RHP and is 20th in OBP (.305). It launched a bunch of homers last night against Joe Musgrove, as I expected, but they won't have similar success against SD SP Dylan Cease (1.82 ERA, 0.74 WHIP). The righty has solidified himself as an early Cy Young candidate and will silence a Philadelphia lineup that's been inconsistent at times this year.

As for the Padres, they're due to break out against left-handed pitching. The team’s xwOBA of .334 (6th in MLB) suggests positive regression is coming. With a righty and switch-hitting dominant lineup, San Diego matches up well against Philly SP Ranger Suarez.

While the first few innings are likely to be a pitcher's duel, the Padres have a serious bullpen pitching advantage, as Philadelphia sports a 5.78 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. At -109 odds, I feel that the Padres deserve more respect and will wager on them to win straight-up on Saturday night at Petco!