The Padres broke out offensively on Friday and Saturday, but I don't envision them getting out to a big early lead today. AZ SP Ryne Nelson is making his first start in over two weeks and San Diego crushes right-handers, but with the D-Backs bullpen fully rested, I expect the home team to keep Nelson on a short pitch count. He'll pitch twice through the lineup at most.

Arizona struggles vs. right-handed pitchers, ranking last in BA and 27th in wRC+ (83), and the knuckleballer Matt Waldron has been solid this season, holding three of his six opponents to just one run. Behind him, is a rested Padres bullpen, as they didn't need their top relievers in the two blowout wins on Friday and Saturday.

I expect Sunday's game to be tightly-contested, as San Diego will be attempting to sustain its momentum with a challenging road sweep of a division foe and Arizona will be motivated to avoid that outcome in front of its home crowd. With the total at 8.5 runs at nearly even odds, the best bet to make in this game is the under!