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Betting Trends: The under is 18-11-3 (62.1%) when the Cardinals are road underdogs and 37-27-3 (57.8%) in their games versus National League teams.

The over is 9-1 in the last ten meetings between these ballclubs, but I'm fading that trend tomorrow. Washington scored many runs in the first two games, and while I favor them to win straight-up, I don't figure they'll continue to pile on the runs. Mikolas is coming off a solid performance on the road at Pittsburgh and held seven of his previous ten opponents to three or fewer runs. His xERA (4.22) is 0.96 points lower than his actual ERA, indicating he's due for positive regression.

St. Louis scored 21 runs in the series' first three games but averaged 3.5 runs per game in its previous ten overall. Its lineup is more productive against right-handers, and Parker has been effective at home, pitching to a 0.82 WHIP while holding opponents to a .207 batting average. I have confidence he will keep the Cardinals in check tomorrow, preventing the total from exceeding nine runs.