Mets starter Luis Severino has been a tail of two pitchers this season. His ERA of 5.00 on the highway is a full two runs worse than it is at Citi Field. He also has been victimized by the long ball on the road, giving up 14 dingers in just 84 innings. Not surprisingly, the Mets are just 2-6 in his road starts since the end of June.

In Milwaukee, Freddy Peralta has been lights out for the last month-and-a-half, sporting a 2.48 ERA since August 17th. The Brewers are playing well behind his great pitching, and have won four of his last five home starts.

Even without being at a pitching disadvantage, this is a tough spot for New York. Playing a game on the road with a late afternoon start time the day after playing a doubleheader is a tall task. Throw in a pitcher who really struggles on the road, and we have a recipe for an easy Brewers win.