There is no question the Flames are the more talented team in this matchup. But Liberty has played with their food way too much this season and trailed both ECU and New Mexico State at the half and both of those teams held 4th quarter leads.

Meanwhile, has two bad losses to Monmouth and FAU, but they’ve covered their other three, beating the number against a very good Indiana team, blowing out C Michigan, and upsetting Louisiana Tech in their last game. They have some solid offensive weapons and they should be able to muster a fair amount of points.

And, while Liberty may be undefeated, this team is not winning in dominant fashion like last year and stand just 1-3 ATS this season. They also have been overvalued by the betting markets, covering just 5 of their last 20 games as a double-digit favorites.

This is a case of perception not quite matching reality. Liberty isn’t as good as the public thinks and FIU isn’t as bad. Getting the hook here is a real bonus and I think all the value in this on is on the dog.