ASA PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET

The Pirates start Trevor Williams in this one. He is 1-8 with a 6.70 ERA. Those numbers are bad enough but what is also concerning for Williams is that he is trending the wrong direction. In his last 5 starts he has a 9.59 ERA and has allowed 11 homers in the 25 and 2 / 3 innings spanning those 5 outings. The Pirates have lost 9 of his last 10 starts and, per our computer math model, he will get pounded here. What has led to line value with this total is that recent games have stayed under the total involving these teams and Kyle Hendricks is on the mound for the Cubs. Those factors resulted in this total opening up at 8 runs which is far too low in our opinion. The Cubs Hendricks is a different pitcher on the road compared to at home. While he has dominated at Wrigley Field this season, Hendricks is just 2-2 with a 4.50 ERA in road outings and opponents have hit .295 against him away from home. The Pirates did see him in his first start this month and that could also help the Pittsburgh bats here. The Pirates have not been scoring a lot of runs lately but they could surprise at home against the Cubs here with some extra momentum after yesterday's 3-2 win. Chicago was 7-3 in their last 10 prior to yesterday's loss and scored an average of 5.6 runs per game in those 7 wins. They should have no trouble with the offerings of Williams here and we're taking advantage of the low total in this one. Bet the OVER in Pittsburgh in early evening action Wednesday.