1st of 3 in CFB 3-pack Saturday
(NCAAF) Northwestern vs. Michigan State,
Point Spread: 13.50 | -105.00 Michigan State (Home)
Result: Win
#180 ASA PLAY ON 8* Michigan State +13.5 over Northwestern, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We definitely look for Northwestern to be flat here after beating Wisconsin in their biggest game of the season last week. That game basically locked up the Big 10 West for the Cats, especially now that the Badgers are not eligible (need to play at least 6 games) to win the division after getting their game with Minnesota cancelled this week. The Cats haven’t been a great first half team to begin with this year. If we throw out their first game vs Maryland (43-3 win) the Wildcats have outscored their last 4 opponents by a combined 2 points in the first half. They’ve trailed at half in 2 of their last 4 games and they’ve been outgained in 3 of those games. 50 of the 60 points the Northwestern defense has allowed this year have come in the first half. They make great adjustments on that side of the ball at halftime allowing just 10 total points in the 2nd half this year. MSU had last week off after their game @ Maryland was cancelled. They used last Friday, Saturday, and Sunday to work on fundamentals which we think is key. They started prep for this game on Monday and coming of back to back losses vs Iowa & Indiana, we feel this is a rally the troops type home game for the Spartans. Their offense should have some success here in the first half vs Northwestern. They shouldn’t need much because the Cats simply don’t score many points in general and in the first half they are averaging just 13 PPG (last 4 games). If MSU gets to 7 or 10 here by halftime, we really like them to cover this first half line. Northwestern may regroup in the 2nd half, but we see them having a lackadaisical performance in the first 30 minutes. Even if adjustments are made at halftime and Northwestern is better in the 2nd half, we still don't see them scoring enough to cover this large spread. Take MICHIGAN STATE.