#353 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New England +1.5 over Miami, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - The Pats are off a 24-3 loss @ LA Rams and they’ve had extra time to prepare for this game as that was on a Thursday. Give Bill Belichick extra time to prepare his defense and you’re usually going to get a great scheme and effort. Give him extra time to prepare facing a rookie QB and then watch out. In his New England career, Belichick has faced 30 rookie QB’s. His record in those games is 25-5 SU. The last 11 times he’s faced a rookie QB for the very first time, he’s 11-0 SU in those games. This will be the first time he faces Miami QB Tagovailoa. Two weeks ago New England was in a similar spot as a small road dog vs everyone’s rookie of the year QB Herbert for the Chargers. What happened in that game? Patriots won 45-0 holding Herbert to 0 TD’s and under a 50% completion rate with 2 picks. Miami is coming off what looks like a close battle with KC last week as they lost 33-27 picking up the tight cover as 7-point underdogs. The truth is, they were down 30-10 entering the 4th quarter and they were outgained 7.3 YPP to 4.8 YPP. The 2 games prior to last week the Fins played the Jets & Bengals, the 2 worst teams in the NFL (Miami won both). Since Tagovailoa took over, the Dolphins are 4-2 in his starts but they’ve been lucky to get to that mark as they’ve been dominated statistically. In fact, if we throw out their game vs the Bengals (he didn’t start or play vs the Jets), in the other 5 games Miami has been outgained by 766 total yards. We expect the NE defense to have lots of success here. Offensively they should move the ball as well. This is a bad match up for the Miami defense. Their weakness is definitely stopping the run as they rank 21st in the NFL in YPG allowed on the ground and 26th in YPC allowed. Facing a New England offense that runs the ball more than any other team with Newton at QB and ranks 5th in the NFL in rushing is not ideal for the Fins. They’ve faced only two other top 10 rushing team this year in the Cardinals & Rams. Arizona rushed for 178 yards on nearly 5 YPC and the Rams put up 131 yards rushing on 4.5 YPC. Lastly, road underdogs of 6 points or less this season in games expected to be low scoring (total set at 45 or less) are 15-1 ATS. We like New England to win this game.