#322 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Jose State -9 over Ball State, Thursday at 2:00 PM ET - This SJSU team has flown under the radar the entire season. They are a perfect 7-0 and are seeking their first undefeated season since 1939. Just two seasons ago this team was 1-11. They are HIGHLY motivated to close out with an undefeated season and we expect to see the Spartans at their best on Thursday. If they are at their best, this team is much better than Ball State. All 7 of SJSU’s wins this year have come by double digits including a 14 point win over a very good Boise State team in the MWC Championship game. The Spartans outgained the Broncos by 240 yards in that game! For the season they outgained their opponents by more than 100 YPG and by a full 2 yards per play (6.9 YPP offense & 4.9 YPP defense) in the much tougher MWC (compared to the MAC). QB Starkel, who played at both Arkansas & Texas A&M, was a grad transfer who led this offense with over 300 YPG passing. The Spartans have one of the most potent passing attacks in the country which is bad news for a Ball State defense that allowed 296 YPG through the air (119th nationally). The 2 best pass offenses the Cardinals faced this season were Western Michigan & Toledo and those 2 teams put up 275 yards passing & 2 TD’s and 407 yards passing & 3 TD’s in those 2 games respectively. Ball State, on the other hand, relies heavily on their running game (45 carries per game but only 3.9 YPC) and they are facing an SJSU defense that gives up only 3.3 YPC. The 2 best rushing attacks they faced this season were Air Force (2nd nationally) & San Diego State (32nd nationally). They held the Falcons to 206 yards rushing (100 yards below their average) and the Aztecs to 101 yards rushing (99 yards below their average). Ball State ranks 53rd nationally running the ball and they’ll be without, by far, their best RB here (Caleb Huntley) who opted out after rushing for just under 3,000 yards in his career. This Spartan defense did not allow more than 24 points in a game this season and we like them to really slow down this Ball State attack. The Cards already won their “Super Bowl” so to speak by beating Buffalo in the MAC Championship game despite getting outgained 7.0 YPP to 5.5 YPP. Ball State was outgained 6.1 YPP to 5.8 YPP on the season despite playing an easier schedule than San Jose who was +2.0 YPP as we mentioned above. The MAC has been historically bad in bowl games with an 18-35-2 ATS record their last 55 as bowl underdogs. Ball State is also historically bad in bowl games going 0-7 SU lifetime with 5 of those 7 losses coming by at least 9 points. This game is being played out west in Arizona which is a definite positive for San Jose State. The Cardinal players are just happy to get away from the cold and snow in this vacation type game. We’ll lay the points with San Jose State as we expect the Spartans to roll in this game.