#977/978 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 8.5 Runs – Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET – Marco Gonzales struggled with a tough Twins lineup in his most recent start. However, in his 2 prior home starts he allowed only 2 earned runs on just 4 hits in 11 innings while striking out 12 batters! The Rays lineup does not have much experience against him which is a big edge here. Speaking of a lack of hitters' experience, the Mariners have never faced the Rays Shane McClanahan. The rookie southpaw has flashed great stuff this season and pitched much better than his linescore would indicate in his last start. McClanahan faced a White Sox team that is the best in the majors against southpaws and only 4 of the 7 hits left the infield! The lefty is undefeated in his 4 daytime starts this season and struck out 23 hits in 18 and 1 / 3 innings! Look for Gonzales to come up with another strong start at home here. He went 4-0 with a 3.21 ERA in his home starts last season. Gonzales also went 3-0 with a 2.91 ERA in day game starts last season. The Rays have the best bullpen in the American League. The Mariners bullpen has a solid 3.58 ERA in home games this season. Tampa Bay has lost 5 straight games and scored an average of only 3.6 runs per game and our computer math model projects a very strong outing for both Gonzales and McClanahan in this one. That said, all signs point to an under here. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket based on the 8 that is posted at most books as of late morning Sunday. We like the odds being in our favor for a very well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER