#476 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Buffalo -2.5 over New England, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Pats come into this one with a 5-0 SU record on the road but they played perhaps the easiest road schedule in the NFL thus far. Their opponents? Houston, NY Jets, Atlanta, Carolina, and the LA Chargers. The only legit competition in that group was the Chargers and New England was outgained 6.4 YPP to 4.7 YPP in that contest but benefited from a pick 6 in that 27-24 win. Their other 4 road opponents have a combined 15-33 record. Going into Buffalo on Monday night will be their most difficult game this season. The Bills are coming off a 31-6 win @ New Orleans on Thanksgiving so they’ve had extra time to get ready for this one. The Bills have had a few stinkers this year losing at home to Indy and getting tripped up @ Jacksonville, but the numbers still show they are the top team in the AFC. They have a YPG differential of +114 and a YPP differential of +1.3, both tops on the NFL. New England’s defense has been on a very good run over the last month but 3 of the 4 offenses they’ve faced during that stretch rank 22nd or lower in offensive DVOA. As good as the New England defense has been, the Buffalo defense is #1 in the NFL allowing just 4.6 YPP compared to 5.1 for the Pats. During their current 6 game winning streak, the Patriots have been a big time beneficiary in the turnover department with a +13 margin in those 6 games alone. They probably can’t count on that tonight facing a Bills team that is 4th in the NFL in TO margin. NE QB Jones has had a great rookie season but after facing a number of lower tier opponents on the road this year, now he takes on the #1 defense in the NFL in one of the toughest venues in the league. We expect him to struggle. All 7 of Buffalo’s wins this year have come by at least 15 points and we like them to cover at home on Monday.