#958 ASA TOP PLAY ON Milwaukee -1.5 Runs over Cincinnati, Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET - Rather than lay in the -230 range with the Brewers here, we can lay 1.5 runs at a solid value of +100. The Brewers offense has been back and forth for much of the season but they’ve been pretty consistent at home averaging almost 5 RPG. In their 7 home wins this season they’ve averaged 6 RPG. We expect the Milwaukee offense to play well here vs Cincy starter Mahle who has allowed 16 ER’s in his last 17.1 innings spanning 4 starts – all losses for the Reds. If Mahle continues to struggle, there is literally no relief for Cincinnati. The Reds bullpen owns the 3rd highest ERA, 3rd highest WHIP and has walked the 2nd most batters in the Majors. Cincy has allowed at least 4 runs in 16 of their last 18 games and that will most likely be enough for Milwaukee to cover -1.5 here. That’s because the Brewers send ace Woodruff to the mound and he is coming off a poor start so we look for a bounce back. He’s also been outstanding at home not allowing a single earned run in 2 starts this season. He is backed by a solid bullpen and the Brewers pitching staff as a whole is rolling right now allowing 2 runs or less in 5 straight games. That’s not great for a Cincinnati team that ranks 30th (last) in OPS, 29th in batting average, 28th in RPG and strikes out a lot. The Reds have won a grand total of ONE of their last 18 games and all but one of those losses have come by at least 2 runs. We like Milwaukee to win this game by 2 runs or more.